PRESIDENT Donald Trump’s move to blockade all Iranian shipments in and out of the Strait of Hormuz poses a serious threat to the fragile ceasefire and may jeopardise any potential for further negotiations between Washington and Tehran. This decision was made just hours after high-level talks in Islamabad that, although not resulting in any formal agreement, had left the door open for continued dis

cussions. Through the blockade, Trump wants to force Iran to accept the terms presented by American Vice-President J.D. Vance during last weekend’s talks in Islamabad.

However, this escalatory action to restrict access to the critical waterway may not achieve what the US six-week military campaign failed to accomplish. Iran has threatened to resume attacks on American military assets in the Gulf if the naval embargo is not lifted, rendering the situation more volatile. The US threat to cut off Iran’s oil exports could draw other countries, both from the region and beyond, into the conflict.

This development is seen as a setback to the efforts made by Pakistan and other regional nations to prevent the derailment of the fragile dialogue process. Trump’s gunboat diplomacy once again put the world on edge. There is, however, still some hope that he will walk back from the brink and return to the negotiating table in the face of increasing international and domestic pressure.

Indeed, he hinted as much yesterday, saying that “something could be happening over the next two days, and we’re more inclined to go there [Pakistan]”. It was indeed a historic moment last week when American and Iranian officials met in Islamabad at practically the highest level for the first time since 1979. Despite the talks taking place under the shadow of war and a persistent trust deficit, the 21-hour marathon discussions did break the ice, although no agreement was reached.

These were the most substantive talks the two sides had held in the past 47 years, and reportedly covered a wide range of issues, but some sticking points left the negotiations inconclusive. Some media reports suggest that there is a strong possibility of a second round of meetings. It was certainly unrealistic to expect the two warring sides to reach a comprehensive peace deal in one sitting at the first meeting.

However, there was hope that they would at least agree to extend the ceasefire and establish a framework for further negotiations. Unfortunately, this did not happen, creating an air of uncertainty. According to reports by the international media, two major sticking points have caused a deadlock in negotiations: Iran’s nuclear programme and control over the Strait of Hormuz.

The US reportedly insisted on a suspension of all nuclear activities, including a ban on enrichment by Iran for at least 20 years. Tehran has long denied seeking a nuclear weapon, but is unwilling to relinquish its rights to enrichment below weapons-grade level under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, of which it is a signatory. This issue has been a long-standing point of dispute, even as Iran has shown some flexibility.

Moreover, the US has demanded that Iran surrender all its enriched uranium. Iran has also expressed reservations about America’s insistence on shipping its stockpile of fuel out of the country, which remains a central point of contention. Interestingly, President Trump had earlier claimed that the American and Israeli bombings last June had completely destroyed Iran’s nuclear facilities, asserting that the enriched uranium was buried beneath the debris of these destroyed sites.

The talks in Islamabad stalled due to the US position of ‘take it or leave it’. It was apparent that Iran had demonstrated considerable flexibility. Iran reiterated its long-standing position on the nuclear issue, but this was seemingly insufficient for the Trump administration.

Iranian officials attributed the deadlock to the hard-line stance of the US and the deep trust deficit. However, Tehran says it remains open to further negotiations regarding the nuclear issue. The restoration of free passage in the Strait of Hormuz was another contentious issue that prevented an agreement.

Iran is unwilling to relinquish control over these waterways, a position unacceptable not only to the US but also to regional and other countries which demand open passage. These were issues that needed to be resolved through negotiations to end the war. Yet, no one anticipated that the American president, despite his unpredictability, would take such a drastic step, which is a declaration of war under international law.

The naval blockade goes against the interests of the international community as it affects all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports. Among the countries that would be most affected by the blockade is China, which is the biggest importer of oil from Iran. Interestingly, last month, Trump eased sanctions on Iran’s oil exports to stabilise international oil prices. His recent reversal has con